Will Ethiopia’s Peace Deal Last?
Without political reform, economic stability, and accountability there is a risk conflict could resume.
With a peace deal now reached, it’s time to invest in Ethiopia
Economic incentives for peace must be spearheaded by the international community to support long-term peacebuilding in Ethiopia.
Ethiopian rivals agree on humanitarian access
Region is in the grip of a severe crisis due to a lack of food and medicine after a two-year conflict.
The Costs of Ethiopia’s Internal Conflicts Between 2020 and 2022
The internal conflicts in Ethiopia between 2020 and 2022 have undone considerable progress in Ethiopia’s economic and social development of the last few decades. This paper reviews the extensive costs in the short and long term to Ethiopia of the internal conflicts and regional tension, including but also beyond the conflict in Tigray.Read more
The Ethiopian Peace Dividend: Counterfactual Growth Scenarios
Up to 2020, Ethiopia benefited from a ‘growth premium’ of between 3.9 to 6.9 percentage points relative to other sub-Saharan African countries that are not rich in natural resources. Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund for the period 2022–2027 suggest that this premium is now on average only 1.5 percentage points per year. If the growth premium cannot be restored, it will be equivalent to a loss to the Ethiopian economy of about 125 billion current US dollars, and will lead to an economy that will be 19 percent smaller than what could have been obtained by 2027.Read more