Research and dialogue on stable peace and inclusive recovery in Ethiopia

After almost two years of violent conflict, Ethiopia is now embarking on a journey towards lasting peace, renewed stability, and inclusive economic recovery. We aim to support this process with independent research by University of Oxford academics and by providing a platform for dialogue.

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Latest developments

19.12 / Foreign Policy

Will Ethiopia’s Peace Deal Last?

Without political reform, economic stability, and accountability there is a risk conflict could resume.

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02.12 / Context

With a peace deal now reached, it’s time to invest in Ethiopia

Economic incentives for peace must be spearheaded by the international community to support long-term peacebuilding in Ethiopia.

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13.11 / Guardian

Ethiopian rivals agree on humanitarian access

Region is in the grip of a severe crisis due to a lack of food and medicine after a two-year conflict.

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Several steps will be needed to clearly define the dividend of peace and build trust and confidence between all parties. We provide a list of priorities and potential entry points for the international community to support this process. They are meant as ingredients for stability and recovery, not as a recipe.

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Our research aims to shed light on the background of Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, quantify the social, humanitarian, political and economic implications, assess the scope for a lasting political and economic settlement, and propose policy options for an inclusive and evidence-based recovery and reconstruction effort.

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28.12 / Oxford Initiative on Peace and Recovery in Ethiopia

The Costs of Ethiopia’s Internal Conflicts Between 2020 and 2022

The internal conflicts in Ethiopia between 2020 and 2022 have undone considerable progress in Ethiopia’s economic and social development of the last few decades. This paper reviews the extensive costs in the short and long term to Ethiopia of the internal conflicts and regional tension, including but also beyond the conflict in Tigray.

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06.12 / Stefan Dercon & Christian Meyer

The Ethiopian Peace Dividend: Counterfactual Growth Scenarios

Up to 2020, Ethiopia benefited from a ‘growth premium’ of between 3.9 to 6.9 percentage points relative to other sub-Saharan African countries that are not rich in natural resources. Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund for the period 2022–2027 suggest that this premium is now on average only 1.5 percentage points per year. If the growth premium cannot be restored, it will be equivalent to a loss to the Ethiopian economy of about 125 billion current US dollars, and will lead to an economy that will be 19 percent smaller than what could have been obtained by 2027.

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