Our research aims to shed light on the background of Ethiopia’s internal conflicts, quantify the social, humanitarian, political and economic implications, assess the scope for a lasting political and economic settlement, and propose policy options for an inclusive and evidence-based recovery and reconstruction effort.

Independent research and evidence on the background of the conflict, its costs, and paths forward.

03.01 / Stefan Dercon & Christian Meyer

Ensuring Lasting Peace in Ethiopia: A Conceptual Framework for the International Community

After almost two years of violent conflict, the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022 is an important first step towards peace and recovery in Ethiopia. It marks the starting point of a long and hard process towards a lasting peace, renewed stability, and inclusive economic recovery. This short note discusses a simple conceptual framework for how the international community can support this peace deal. The framework draws on basic game theory, which offers insights into how we might think about the process through which two or more parties take decisions that influence each other’s welfare.

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28.12 / Oxford Initiative on Peace and Recovery in Ethiopia

The Costs of Ethiopia’s Internal Conflicts Between 2020 and 2022

The internal conflicts in Ethiopia between 2020 and 2022 have undone considerable progress in Ethiopia’s economic and social development of the last few decades. This paper reviews the extensive costs in the short and long term to Ethiopia of the internal conflicts and regional tension, including but also beyond the conflict in Tigray.

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05.12 / Stefan Dercon & Christian Meyer

The Ethiopian Peace Dividend: Counterfactual Growth Scenarios

Up to 2020, Ethiopia benefited from a ‘growth premium’ of between 3.9 to 6.9 percentage points relative to other sub-Saharan African countries that are not rich in natural resources. Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund for the period 2022–2027 suggest that this premium is now on average only 1.5 percentage points per year. If the growth premium cannot be restored, it will be equivalent to a loss to the Ethiopian economy of about 125 billion current US dollars, and will lead to an economy that will be 19 percent smaller than what could have been obtained by 2027.

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