Ensuring Lasting Peace in Ethiopia: A Conceptual Framework for the International Community

After almost two years of violent conflict, the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022 is an important first step towards peace and recovery in Ethiopia. It marks the starting point of a long and hard process towards a lasting peace, renewed stability, and inclusive economic recovery. This short note discusses a simple conceptual framework for how the international community can support this peace deal. The framework draws on basic game theory, which offers insights into how we might think about the process through which two or more parties take decisions that influence each other’s welfare.

We argue that, in the short run, the international community should focus on a process that creates credible and visible incentives for sticking to the peace deal. Credibility is key here: peace can only be stable if its dividend is clear to all parties, and if there is a clear sense of commitment as regards all parties working towards maintaining and increasing this dividend.

This note provides a general framework; more specific priorities and potential entry points for the international community are summarised here.